URC SCENE-SETTER: Injuries impact SA hopes as much hinges on Dublin finale

The Vodacom Bulls will be the one South African team heading to the Vodacom United Rugby Championship playoffs who will not be in an anxious mood when Leinster host Glasgow Warriors in the final league game of the season.

Jake White’s team effectively played themselves into a position where their fate was swinging into their hands when they beat the reigning champions in Glasgow a few weeks ago. A tour that saw wins over both of the most recent champions was as big a statement as you can get from the Pretoria team.

They say you make your own luck and maybe the Bulls did that as they really did become commanders of their own fate when Benetton shocked Glasgow in Treviso in the penultimate round.

So provided they beat the Dragons in Pretoria on Saturday, the Bulls won’t be worrying about the Dublin finale to the league season. They’re already in the position they have coveted for most of the season, and can only relinquish it if they lose and Glasgow win.

HOSTING STORMERS A PERILOUS PROSPECT

For the Hollywoodbets Sharks and the DHL Stormers it’s a bit different. Normally you wouldn’t imagine there’s much difference between ending third or fourth on the log. Both positions clinch you a home quarterfinal but deny you an automatic home semifinal should you get that far.

And there’s also not that much difference between fifth and sixth. Both are just outside of the placings for a home playoff to start the Finals Series.

But this year those things may well matter. Apart from giving them a better chance of playing a home semi if there is an upset in another game, a third placed finish will enable the Sharks to avoid the potentially perilous prospect of having to face their in form countrymen from Cape Town, the DHL Stormers, in their quarterfinal.

It is obvious why they would prefer to play an overseas team. The travel obstacles, particularly when it gets to the knock-out phase of the competition and the opposing team has to travel from the other side of the equator, are well documented.

For the Stormers it would be a two hour flight to a venue where they have boasted a decent record in recent years. For a team like Munster it is a much bigger undertaking.

So a Sharks win coupled with a Glasgow defeat to Leinster, meaning the Durbanites finish third, has huge benefits. It also means that if they win their quarterfinal and the Bulls win theirs, they go to Pretoria and not overseas for their semifinal.

Again, obvious benefits which are quite apart from the fact that with three bonus point wins in succession and with Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu playing like a wizard at flyhalf the Stormers have momentum and confidence.

So there are no prizes for guessing who the Sharks will be supporting in the Dublin league finale - provided they themselves have won their final game against Scarlets, they will be desperate for Leinster to win so that they can pass Glasgow and go into third.

WHY CAPE SIDE CAN’T RISK DEFEAT

The catch though is that if the Stormers lose to what will be a supremely motivated Cardiff on Friday night in a game that the visitors have clearly targeted as they went in without some top players against the Bulls last week, then the Stormers may drop to sixth - which would put the two coastal teams back on a collision path as it is third plays sixth in the quarters.

At the same time, the Stormers know that if they tried to engineer their finishing position, in other words lose to Cardiff on purpose, they could end up looking like a right bunch of Charlies if the Sharks then go on to lose to Scarlets the next day which will mean they still finish fourth regardless of what happens in Cardiff.

The Stormers would then still be heading to Glasgow for their quarterfinal on top of having disappointed their fans in their final home game of the season.

And depending on what happens elsewhere on a weekend that starts with the Cape Town game, the Stormers will on top of that risk dropping to eighth, because there are teams poised to overtake them if they lose without getting a bonus point. Eighth would mean a flight to Dublin. No-one wants that when Leinster are the opponents.

But with a routing to the Shark Tank for their quarterfinal then being followed by a trip to Pretoria to play the Bulls if they win, it is understandable why the Stormers would be desperate for that scenario to unfold. They are a team that has a reputation for travelling poorly to the northern hemisphere, but who have a great record in derby matches at all the South African venues.

KEY INJURIES MAY IMPACT SHARKS AND BULLS

Ultimately though the sweating for the Bulls and Sharks over who wins where and who they play next might be overshadowed by their concerns over how they cover the potential absences of players that would have been key for them going into the knockouts.

The Bulls look likely to be without their top specialist flyhalf Johan Goosen, who was injured in the game against Cardiff last week, while Eben Etzebeth’s painful and awkward departure from the field in the first half of their win over the Ospreys has cast a shadow over the Sharks.

The big Springbok is understandably a talisman for them when he is present, which admittedly hasn’t been much lately but they would have been hoping to have him in top form in the playoffs.

Keagan Johannes, normally a scrumhalf, looks likely to play in Goosen’s place, and the other alternative is Willie le Roux, normally a fullback. So there will be a lot of focus on how Johannes goes against the Dragons, which is an ideal game for any player to build his confidence.

The Dragons looked like they were punching above their weight against the Stormers in the penultimate round of the league phase and still conceded just two points less than a half century of points.

For the other South African team rounding off their URC league season at the weekend, the Emirates Lions, there is only pride to play for.

Their chances of sneaking into the playoffs were effectively blown by Benetton’s shock win over Glasgow, which cut off the remaining open spot in the top eight. The same can be said for their opponents in Johannesburg on Saturday evening, the Ospreys.

ROUND 18 VODACOM UNITED RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP FIXTURES

DHL Stormers v Cardiff (Cape Town, Friday 7pm)

Edinburgh v Ulster (Edinburgh, Friday 8:35pm)

Munster v Benetton (Limerick, Friday 9pm)

Vodacom Bulls v Dragons (Pretoria, Saturday 3pm)

Emirates Lions v Ospreys (Johannesburg, Saturday 5:15pm)

Zebre v Connacht (Parma, Saturday 6pm)

Hollywoodbets Sharks v Scarlets (Durban, Saturday 7:30pm)

Leinster v Glasgow Warriors (Dublin, Saturday 8:35pm)

VODACOM URC LOG POSITIONS AFTER 17 GAMES

1. Leinster 72, 2. Vodacom Bulls 63, 3. Glasgow Warriors 59, 4. Hollywoodbets Sharks 58, 5. DHL Stormers 50, 6. Scarlets 48, 7. Benetton 46, 8. Munster 46, 9. Cardiff 46, 10. Edinburgh 44, 11. Ospreys 38, 12. Ulster 38, 13. Emirates Lions 35, 14. Connacht 35, 15. Zebre 29, 16. Dragons 8